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Health effects are modelled through criteria pollutants (SO₂, NOₓ → secondary PM2.5), never through CO2 directly — CO2 is not one of the pollutants the source-receptor transport model carries. Every box below is a step in a counterfactual: rule-in-force vs. repeal, not an observed event.
Two independent lines of evidence bound the range. The lower anchor is EPA's own analysis of its repeal, cross-checked against a bottom-up build. The upper anchor is the top of an independent range published by RFF and Rhodium — a bound, not a second best estimate. The midpoint is drawn for illustration only. Switching anchors moves the marker along a fixed bar; both anchors stay visible.
| Assumption | Effect on the estimate |
|---|
▲ overstates ▼ understates ◆ process / directionally neutral
Where the extra emissions originate — the 67-unit Ohio Valley coal cluster, aggregated to model source cells (cell / county / state). Lower/mid/upper anchor toggle, SO₂/NOₓ switch.
About 75% of coal-PM2.5 deaths land outside the state that emitted the pollution (Henneman 2023). The Ohio Valley cluster's downwind PM2.5 is computed and mapped receptor by receptor.
The Ohio Valley cluster's computed peak PM2.5, deaths per year, and an illustrative dollar value, with the full method behind each. The national roll-up is still pending.
Full method, honesty ledger, the two evidence anchors, and the acceptance tests the pipeline has to pass before any number is shown.