⚠ CONDITIONALWhat is being compared: the rule stays in force vs. the rule is repealed.
A modelled counterfactual, not an enacted outcome — the rule is still under White House
regulatory review and the final rule is not yet published in the Federal Register.
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What was computed, and what the three anchors are
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Peak added PM2.5, downwind
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Where the peak is, and its spread
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Excess deaths per year
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How this death count is worked out
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Health damages, illustrative
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What a statistical life is priced at
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This cluster is not the fleet — read this before quoting a number.How it compares with EPA's fleet-wide figure
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How these numbers were made, checked and reproduced
Dose–response curve
GEMM (the Global Exposure Mortality Model, Burnett et al.
2018) — a curve that turns a change in PM2.5 into a change in death rate. It gives higher estimates than
the simpler curves EPA uses, so treat these figures as the upper end of the plausible range.
Baseline death rate
0.01182 deaths per person per year — the US national rate for
non-communicable disease plus lower-respiratory infection, ages 25 and over (the causes GEMM is fitted to),
applied to the adult (25+) population. The national counterpart of the California-specific rate used
in the Bay-Area demos.
Emissions denominators
Shares are taken against Climate TRACE’s
2025 coal-fleet totals — 613,000 t SO2 and 687,000 t NOx per year.
The NOx total runs about 41% above the publicly reported coal-fleet NOx
figure (486,000 t/yr); SO2 is within 4.8%. Sulfate formed from SO2 dominates
the modelled health effect, so these figures are not sensitive to the NOx gap.
Value of a statistical life
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Where the effect is counted
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What is being compared
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Which plants
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Emissions-to-air model
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Checks we ran before trusting these numbers
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Raw output from each check
How to reproduce these figures
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The exact read contract
Column layout of the matrix file, and the single ranged
request used to pull one source column: