Deaths per 100k people/yr
0
Six color bands, unevenly spaced — finer at the low end.
no data / ~0 (near-zero population)
✕
Honesty ledger — assumptions & limits
• Illustrative counterfactual estimate: if all modeled Bay-industry PM2.5
(non-hub sectors) were removed and the reduction sustained, we estimate
~ fewer steady-state annual deaths.
• y0 = 0.00975/person/yr — IHME GBD 2023, California NCD+LRI, ages 25+, crude
rate — applied uniformly to all Bay cells (state-level, the finest GBD resolution available; no US
county rates).
• CRF: — the GEMM upper-bound sensitivity; the recommended
MR-BRT function runs 30–70% lower.
• Hub sectors (ports & airports — ) pin
mobile/diffuse emissions to one cell, a spurious single-cell hotspot artefact
(71% of the Bay signal) — excluded from the default
(PHYSICAL) view.
• VSL is illustrative: The Bay-wide total priced this
way is in illustrative annual damages. Prefer a range (~$7M–$13M)
around the central value. It prices small reductions in mortality risk spread across a large
population.
• 2005 annual-average meteorology; steady-state annual, not an episodic/wildfire
model. The Bay is covered by model cells.
• Fractional cell deaths (e.g. "~0.5") are statistical expectations, not literal
people — most cells contribute a small fraction of one modeled death per year.